A modeling framework consisting of an oyster larvae transport model, oyster demographic model, and a model to evaluate the ecosystem impacts of oyster restoration (hereinafter referred to as the “oyster ecosystem impact model”) will support the EIS.

The modeling projects are being viewed as “highly influential scientific assessments” because the output will be a primary source of information used to quantify the ecological, economic and cultural risks and benefits associated with each alternative in the EIS. This information will be the basis by which important public policy decisions will be made regarding oyster restoration programs in the Chesapeake Bay.

The objective of the oyster larvae transport model is to determine the potential distance and rate of C. ariakensis and C. virginica oyster larvae dispersal in Chesapeake Bay. The model will utilize coupled hydrodynamic and larvae transport models with links to the oyster demographic mode. The larvae transport model will be run with 1) circulation patterns from two three-dimensional (3-D) hydrodynamic models (Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and QUODDY), 2) circulation patterns from years of different physical conditions, and 3) observed behaviors of C. ariakensis and C. virginica.

An oyster demographic model will be developed that can be used to predict population growth of C. ariakensis and C. virginica, both spatially and temporally, within Chesapeake Bay, for each of the oyster restoration alternatives being evaluated in this EIS.

The ecosystem impacts of oyster restoration will be quantitatively assessed using an existing oyster ecosystem impact model developed by the U.S. Army Engineer and Development Center (Vicksburg, MS). The model is a component of the Chesapeake Bay Environmental Model Package (CBEMP), which has been historically utilized as a successful management tool employed by the Environmental Protection Agency’s Chesapeake Bay Program. The CBEMP consists of a coupled system of models including a 3-D hydrodynamic model, a 3-D eutrophication model, and a sediment diagenesis model.